It’s understandable that some Twins fans are asking for radical changes to be made following yet another postseason failure. Is trading Max Kepler one that carries weight?
Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today
The case againstKepler signed a 5-year, $35 million extension following his solid but not spectacular 2018 season. The spectacular was fulfilled in 2019. Kepler blasted 36 home runs and 32 doubles while primarily leading off for the Twins, gearing his swing to pull the ball in the air with authority. Kepler received league MVP votes and Twins Daily voted him as the best Twin of 2019.
Kepler, like his teammate and friend Byron Buxton, is an incredible athlete. He ranks third among right fielders since 2018 in defensive fWAR (8.4), trailing only Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge. Kepler has a sweet left-handed swing. It’s aesthetically pleasing to watch him belt baseballs to right field.
Over the last three seasons, Kepler’s 8.0 bWAR is again only behind Betts and Judge among right fielders. Kepler is, by all accounts, a top three-to-five player at his position. He’s hit .246/.332/.499 over the last two seasons for an OPS+ of 119, firmly above league average.
Kepler is set to make only $21.75 million over the next three years with a $10 million club option for 2024. He’ll turn 32 following that season.
The case for
For all of the reasons above, Kepler would undoubtedly bring back significant pieces in a trade. He’s a really good outfielder in his prime with a team-friendly contract and four years of team control. The Twins could get back a heap of prospects or perhaps package Kepler to swing a deal for starting pitching (not that they need it as much as they did in 2019). This front office has repeatedly stressed “sustained success.” Is trading Kepler to improve the farm system contributing to sustained success? Or is losing a really good player counterproductive?
Of course, the most important factor is the dropoff for 2021. It’s true the Twins are flush with outfielders. Alex Kirilloff looks like he could man right field, Trevor Larnach is knocking at the door for another corner outfield spot, and Brent Rooker looked Major-League adept in his debut season. Jake Cave has an .807 OPS against right-handed pitching in his career, two points higher than Kepler. How much does moving Kepler hinder their ability to compete for another division title in 2021?
About that platoon...
Perhaps the most impressive part of Kepler’s 2019 was his adjustment against lefties. He had struggled for most of his career in those spots but rebounded to hit .293/.356/.524 against southpaws in 2019. Kepler went just 6-for-47 in those matchups in 2020.
As a result, Kepler’s overall batting line regressed to .228/.321/.439. His OPS+ remained above league average at 108. A platoon player is still much less valuable than one who can start every day.
Kepler’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate declined during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. As we can ask with most things this year, what does that really mean?
What do you think? Should the Twins shop Max Kepler?
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