CINCINNATI — Thirty-seven-year-old pitchers are not usually wise investments. They don’t often rank as one of the most attractive free agents available on the market either.
But Max Scherzer’s performance this season – one that could very well make him only the fifth pitcher in baseball history to win four (or more) Cy Young Awards – is not normal. In an age when every acquisition, free agent or otherwise, is analytically micro-measured for whatever marginal advantage or potential handicap it could bring, Scherzer must be breaking models in front offices all around baseball.
“Good,” Scherzer said to that, sitting in the visitor’s dugout at Great American Ball Park one day after lowering his major league-leading ERA to 2.08 – a ridiculous 0.78 in nine starts as a Dodger.
“Coming to the park and winning is No. 1. That’s always been my motivation. It’s never been to prove anyone wrong. But, yeah, I mean – I’m a human. You want to beat your projections. Every single year.
“I think I’ve done a pretty good job year in, year out of showing I can be better than what some computer thinks. I get why we have computers. They’re very good. Over the long haul, they make sound judgments from a macro viewpoint. But when you actually try to describe a player? I hope I’m better than my projections. I hope there’s more things I do that can’t be quantified, that allows me to go out there and have success.”
If there is a comp for Scherzer at this point in his career, it might be his former Detroit teammate Justin Verlander. Shortly after his 36th birthday in spring 2019, Verlander signed a two-year, $66 million contract extension with the Houston Astros, heading off free agency.
He was worth the investment that season, joining Scherzer as one of seven pitchers to have won a Cy Young Award in both leagues. But Verlander threw just six innings last season before undergoing Tommy John surgery that will sideline him until 2022 (when he will turn 39).
“Free agency, that all takes care of itself,” Scherzer said, dismissing the topic as premature to discuss. “As long as you go out there and play to win, everything else takes care of itself. It guides you in the right direction and to the right team. So for me, I just want to come to the park and win. That’s it.”
The idea that his three months with the Dodgers could serve as a ‘test drive’ for a potential longer commitment isn’t one Scherzer gave much weight. From the Dodgers’ side, though, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman called it “added value” in acquiring a player headed to free agency.
“We’ve made big trades for guys on expiring contracts and part of the added value of making those trades is you get to know the player better and they get to know us better with the idea that if we want to be aggressive and continue the relationship then hopefully they will have really enjoyed their time and want to be a part of it,” Friedman said.
The most obvious example of the Dodgers acquiring a high-profile free agent-to-be in midseason was the 2018 trade for Manny Machado. With shortstop Corey Seager returning from injury for the 2019 season, the Dodgers were not aggressive in trying to re-sign Machado, who went to the San Diego Padres instead, signing a 10-year, $300 million contract.
Scherzer (who is represented by Scott Boras) has done nothing but make himself an even more desirable commodity since joining the Dodgers. But there are a number of factors that will complicate this winter for Scherzer and the Dodgers – one of which is the expiring Collective Bargaining Agreement.
“There’s too many variables at play to try and narrow down anything,” said Scherzer, who is involved with the MLB players’ union as a member of the player leadership. “So many scenarios can play out. It fries your brain trying to figure out which one is going to happen.”
Friedman echoes that sentiment.
“There’s just a lot of unknowns,” he said. “All I know is that things will be different. In what respect, we don’t know at this point.”
Also unknown is just how much the Dodgers will be paying Trevor Bauer next season – if anything. Amid sexual assault allegations, Bauer has been on administrative leave for the final three months of the 2021 season, receiving all $38 million he was owed by the Dodgers in the first year of a three-year, $102 million contract. If he is suspended for all or part of the 2022 season, the Dodgers’ commitment to him (he is scheduled to make $32 million next season) could be less. Or they could release him, swallowing all of the $64 million remaining on his contract.
“We are in the same place of waiting for MLB,” was all Friedman would say about Bauer’s situation. “Once something has been decided, we will be in position to talk through it more.”
Scherzer is not the only multiple Cy Young winner headed toward free agency this winter. Clayton Kershaw is also unsigned beyond this season and recently said “I can honestly say I have no idea what’s going to happen.”
“We’ve talked a lot about Kersh and how much he’s meant to this organization,” Friedman said. “I think all of our focus right now is on doing whatever we can to win a championship in 2021. After our last game is played, we’ll shift gears to the offseason. But we have not been shy about the fact that Kersh has meant a great deal to this organization and hopefully will continue to.”How would that look on a spreadsheet? How wise an investment would it be to have millions and millions of dollars tied up in two pitchers who will turn 38 and 34 years old during the 2021 season?
“I look forward to working through that in the offseason,” Friedman said.
UP NEXT
Dodgers (LHP Julio Urias, 18-3, 2.99 ERA) at Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela, 4-9, 4.06 ERA), Tuesday, 5:40 p.m., SportsNet LA, 570 AM
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