By Pedro Moura
FOX Sports MLB Writer
This MLB offseason is posing an unusual question to its players, agents and executives: How much uncertainty can you tolerate?
Everyone has provided an answer, even those who have done nothing. Those not acting are willing to wait out what may be a months-long lockout, starting Thursday. Others are not; they took their chances on the best deal they could procure in the first weeks of this offseason.
In recent years, November has almost never been the time top players choose to sign. Historically, agents always told you, the best deals were simply unavailable.
Are they now? No one knows if what’s signed now will prove to be the best deal available all offseason. But Corey Seager and Marcus Semien jumped on half a billion dollars, between them, from the Texas Rangers over the past few days. Max Scherzer signed for an average salary greater than the payrolls of two MLB teams. Wander Franco and Byron Buxton signed life-changing extensions. Eduardo Rodriguez and Avisaíl García, former top prospects who have never dominated to the degree projected from them, signed for a combined nine years and $130 million.
Most of the deals signed this month have appeared, at least at first glance, favorable to the players. Evidently, they are holding firm enough in the face of uncertainty, and some eager teams are willing to spend more than they have in years to secure some talent before the lockout kicks in. That might mean the teams expect the next collective bargaining agreement to usher in a less favorable climate for them. Or it might not. But it’s something to ponder as we approach a December freeze.
Consider García’s four-year, $53-million contract with the Marlins. It’s the sort of free-agent deal we haven’t often seen over the past half-decade: an unspectacular, up-and-down player, already in his 30s, securing a sizable commitment from a team that remains much more than one competent player away from contending for the postseason. In fact, we may not have seen a deal like it since the Marlins’ last big free-agent foray, almost six years ago, to guarantee pitcher Wei-Yin Chen $80 million.
That was one of the final free-agent contracts signed under the previous CBA. The newer agreement brought about tamped-down spending, especially from teams on the outside of projected playoff pictures. And now a heated CBA negotiation is underway.
Given that, Garcia’s is the sort of deal that doesn’t make much sense in the current climate. But maybe it will soon? So far in negotiations, the Major League Baseball Players Association is insisting that owners divert more revenue the players' way, especially earlier in their careers. Players are also arguing for provisions that entice teams like the Marlins to spend more than they have lately. If the players succeed, maybe Garcia’s deal will look like an underpay in a few months’ time. Or maybe not. That’s the uncertainty at play.
The Marlins are far from the only ones in that boat. Through early Tuesday, 10 free agents have signed deals worth more than $50 million this month. Not one signed with a club that made the playoffs in 2021. In fact, none of the six teams to come to those terms — the Marlins, Rangers, Mets, Tigers, Mariners, and Blue Jays — have won a single Division Series game since 2016. The cellar-dwellers are choosing now to try to climb. Why now?
Maybe there’s some coincidence at play. It was always a matter of time before Mets owner Steve Cohen flexed his financial muscle. In addition to Scherzer, the Mets have signed infielder Eduardo Escobar, utilityman Mark Canha and outfielder Starling Marte.
The Blue Jays look like real contenders. The Tigers and Mariners are nearing the end of long rebuilding cycles. The Rangers recently introduced a new stadium. But nothing exactly screamed that the Rangers needed to spend now, especially on a 31-year-old like Semien. They have prospects on the way, but not necessarily in 2022. The kids may not arrive until Semien has begun to decline.
Maybe these teams are providing themselves insurance in the unlikely event a salary floor is introduced into the next CBA. Maybe they are also insuring against the likelihood of any significant CBA change. To paint in broad strokes, there are a few ways this CBA negotiation could go: The status quo could continue, the owners could prevail, the players could prevail, or the two sides could fail to come to an agreement for months and miss some or all of next season.
One thing is for sure: This month’s spending has proved that many owners are not hurting for money, as they said they were in 2020. Ticket sales in 2021 exceeded expectations. Now offseason expenditures are doing the same. We will see what that means for the length and intensity of the impending lockout.
Before Wednesday’s 11:59 p.m. ET CBA deadline, there figures to be one last flurry of action. Early Tuesday, Javy Báez reportedly agreed to a six-year, $140-million deal with Detroit. The free-agent market will become even more crowded as teams inform some players they will not be offered arbitration. Among the non-tender candidates are the Padres’ Dinelson Lamet, the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd, and the Marlins’ Jorge Alfaro.
Not long ago, each of those three players were widely desired in trades. At this point, players who have not signed are more likely to wait until the lockout is complete, because of the logistics required in finalizing a deal. But there could still be an additional decision or two.
And anyone who doesn’t decide has let us know they are OK waiting out what could be months of uncertainty. Time will tell if players and teams were smart to act aggressively in November.
Pedro Moura is the national baseball writer for FOX Sports. He most recently covered the Dodgers for three seasons for The Athletic. Previously, he spent five years covering the Angels and Dodgers for the Orange County Register and L.A. Times. More previously, he covered his alma mater, USC, for ESPNLosAngeles.com. The son of Brazilian immigrants, he grew up in the Southern California suburbs. Follow him on Twitter @pedromoura.
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