Baseball | 5/6/2020 10:38:00 AM
Baseball is all about the numbers. The measure of a player's value is often quantified through the usage of statistics, both the traditional figures and the advanced metrics. Typically, this information is only as useful as the sample size that accompanies it. However, when a player rockets 20 spots up projected MLB Draft boards, from the mid-twenties to borderline top-five, this rule can likely be thrown out the window.Such was the story of Gopher ace Max Meyer's dominant 2020 season, during which he took the mound for just four starts and logged 27 2/3 innings before the season ended due to ongoing public health concerns stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. Meyer, a widely successful arm and unanimous Preseason All-American entering the year, used a career 2.09 ERA with 141 strikeouts across 120 1/3 innings from 2018-19 to solidify himself as a consensus first round draft pick prior to the 2020 campaign. As MLB Pipeline's No. 25 prospect at that time, Meyer owned 18 career saves and also worked effectively as a starter throughout much of 2019.
Fast forward to the present, where Meyer has been ranked as highly as the No. 4 overall player on this year's board after taking his performance on the mound to another level in 2020. In those aforementioned four starts, Meyer went 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA, 46 strikeouts (14.96 K/9) and a .155 batting average against. He walked just eight batters. Still, even those numbers don't tell the full story of Meyer's rise up the MLB Draft rankings in just four starts. For the full picture, one needs to look beyond the traditional statistics and into the advanced metrics.
In 2020, Meyer's fastball maxed out at 101 miles-per-hour, according to Baseball America. That was the fastest of any collegiate pitcher in the country. Meyer's average fastball velocity was 97.4 MPH across those 27 2/3 innings pitched, representing a significant improvement for a hurler who sat 93-95 MPH as a sophomore in 2019. Meyer even proved capable of holding his improved velocity in the mid-to-upper nineties in the later innings of his starts in 2020.
All told, Meyer's heater improved by 12 MPH (max velocity) from his days as a senior in high school to the 2020 campaign. Even back then, Meyer was deemed a worthy asset to pro teams, having been selected in the 34th round by the Minnesota Twins in 2017. As a high school senior, Meyer sat at 87-89 MPH with his fastball on the radar gun. That velocity jumped to 91-93 MPH his freshman season in Maroon and Gold and rose again to 93-95 MPH during his sophomore campaign in 2019, before settling in at 95-98 MPH this past season.
In D1Baseball's end-of-season rankings of the top-150 starting pitchers in the country, Meyer ranked third overall. Out of the top-10 ranked pitchers on that list, Meyer boasted the highest percentage of fastballs thrown over 94 MPH with a mark of 92%. The same can be said for Meyer's 70-grade slider, as the Gopher ace led that same group of top-10 arms with 94% of his sliders thrown over 86 MPH. That slider maxed out at 93 MPH in 2020, including an average velocity of 91.6 MPH. With that speed and plus-plus break also came excellent control, evidenced by 68% of those sliders resulting in strikes. Both Meyer's fastball and slider are considered the best of their type in the 2020 draft class, according to Baseball America.
Judging by Meyer's 2020 numbers, that fastball-slider combination clearly translated to on-field success. Not only did Meyer pace the Big Ten Conference in strikeouts, but he finished tied for fifth among NCAA Division I pitchers in that category while posting the 22nd highest strikeouts-per-nine innings (14.96 K/9). Included in that profile was a 14-strikeout complete game win versus North Carolina and a 15-strikeout, eight inning victory against Utah. Meyer also ranked second in the Big Ten in innings pitched and wins, and third in the conference in batting average against. Among D1Baseball's top-10 starters, he was one of just three pitchers to post a sub-.160 batting-average-against versus both right-handed and left-handed hitters.
Perhaps the most impressive component to the tale of Meyer's 2020 season was his ability to improve his swing-and-miss stuff in each subsequent start. After striking out seven batters across five innings in the season opener against Oregon, he set down 10 TCU hitters over 5 2/3 frames the next weekend. Meyer followed that up with the aforementioned 14 and 15 strikeout outings against North Carolina and Utah, concluding the season with 39 strikeouts in a span of three starts. Judging by that trend, Meyer was only getting better as the season wore on.
As Meyer looks ahead to the 2020 MLB Draft, which is currently scheduled to begin on June 10, there is a strong possibility he will become not only the highest Gopher draft pick since Paul Molitor in 1977 (No. 3 overall), but the highest pitcher ever selected out of the University of Minnesota.
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May 06, 2020 at 10:45PM
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An In-Depth Look at Max Meyer's Four Dominant Starts in 2020 - University of Minnesota Athletics - GopherSports.com
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