Max Kepler was coming off a career year in 2019 that inspired the imaginations of Twins Territory. The “next step” was discussed all offseason as well as dreams of the next Christian Yelich. 2020 has been far from what we’d hoped for Max Kepler however, and his performance as a whole is reason for concern.
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Kepler’s 2019 was fantastic with a .252/.335/.519 slash line, good for a 121 wRC+. He looked likely to continue that performance after slugging two homers on opening day off of Lucas Giolito. Since opening day however, Kepler has a line of .198/.302/.343 with a 78 wRC+, typically coming from the leadoff spot which has cost the Twins dearly.The first difference that stands out in his 2020 profile is his performance against left handed pitching. In 2019 Kepler managed to hit .293/.356/.524 against lefties, which actually bested his numbers against righties. In 2020, Kepler has cratered to a .105/.205/.132 line. While we held our breath that Kepler had suddenly learned to hit lefties, there are very few left handed hitters in history that can sustain equal or greater success against left handed pitching than right handed. The contrast between last year’s performance and the rest of his career suggests that Kepler probably had a career year that may never be replicated, let alone improved upon.
I’m no hitting mechanics guru, but something has changed in Max Kepler’s swing. I couldn’t point out the specifics in a side by side breakdown, but I can use his numbers to prove it. For starters, Kepler’s average exit velocity has dropped from 89.7 to 87.7 mph and his hard hit rate has plummeted from 42.1 to 33% This isn’t super crazy to see happen naturally, but in this case it probably has something to do with his average launch angle increasing from a healthy 18.2 degrees to 22.7. We’ve seen tons of pop ups on pitches Max would have punished last year, and it’s made him a flat out liability at the plate in 2020.
What’s even more troubling has been Kepler’s defense. He was sneakily one of the best defensive right fielders in all of baseball in years past, and this year has been far from it. We’ve seen Max contribute to losses in a big way recently by dropping a routine fly ball and failing to make a throw to first base from shallow right field. His defensive metrics say this is more than just failing the eye test. His Outs Above Average according to Statcast has dropped from 7 to 0. His Universal Zone Rating has decreased from 9.9 to 2. All of this despite a career best sprint speed.
So what’s causing an all around career worst year for Kepler and how do we fix it? Part of it is likely good old fashioned regression. After last year’s 100th percentile outcome, Kepler is probably seeing his 10th percentile play out. In a full season, it’s not likely that Kepler would continue at this rate for the entire year assuming you believe in his talent. Unfortunately across 60 games, it’s going to look ugly in the record books.
The more important consideration is that this season is unlike any other. The Twins are playing much worse on the road and for good reason. The protocols players have to follow are strict, and each player will likely handle it differently. Kepler has made costly mistakes this season that appeared to be caused by a lack of focus, and it’s not hard to imagine why given the state of the world.
There’s no sugarcoating the fact that Kepler looks far from the player that led a 101 win team in fWAR last season. It is difficult however to pull too much of a conclusion from 60 games during the weirdest season of baseball in history. What do you think of Kepler’s struggle? Extenuating circumstances, or is Kepler just not the player we believed he was after 2020?
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September 20, 2020 at 09:00AM
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