When it’s time to pick the words that will be carved on Max Scherzer's Hall of Fame plaque, there will be no shortage of impressive numbers and achievements to cite. The right-hander already has eight All-Star selections, three Cy Young Awards and nearly 3,000 strikeouts, to name a few. And he’s hardly finished.
But here’s one that assuredly will not be bronzed for Cooperstown: 0-for-a-season.
Scherzer, who turned 37 last month, remains dominant on the mound in 2021, compiling a 2.69 ERA in 22 starts, including his first three since a Deadline trade from the Nationals to the Dodgers. But at the plate? That’s a different story.
When Scherzer steps in the batter’s box on Saturday afternoon at Dodger Stadium, where he will draw the start against Rich Hill and the Mets, this will be the 2021 batting line he drags with him:
44 PA, 0-for-41, 0 BB, 0 HBP, 2 sac bunts, 1 sac fly, 1 RBI, 17 SO
You can probably do the math, but that works out to a slash line of .000/.000/.000. And that means Scherzer is in historic territory of the sort to which he is unaccustomed. Assuming he gets at least six more plate appearances and never records a hit, a walk or a hit-by-pitch, he will break the record for the most trips to the plate in a season without reaching safely.
Most PA in a season with zero times on base^
- 49 -- Wei-Yin Chen (2016 Marlins)
2) 44 -- Max Scherzer (2021 Nationals/Dodgers)
3) 42 -- Jason Bergmann (2008 Nationals)
4) 36 -- Vicente Palacios (1994 Cardinals)
5) 35 -- Hal Finney (1936 Pirates)
^Does not include reaching on an error or fielder’s choice
Scherzer also is currently tied for the sixth-most hitless at-bats in a full season (41), although that particular record is out of reach. In 1962, pitcher Bob Buhl went an astonishing 0-for-70 for the Milwaukee Braves and the Cubs, although he drew six walks and was hit by a pitch.
(We’re specifically dealing with single seasons here, but Scherzer’s streak is actually at 48 plate appearances going back to 2019 -- 54 if you include the postseason. Then again, if you go across seasons, five other pitchers since 2010 have gone through a streak of at least 48 plate appearances, led by Ivan Nova, who didn’t reach 70 straight times between June 11, 2017, and July 22, 2018. Or, if you want a Hall of Fame example, Nolan Ryan endured a 63-PA drought during the 1984-85 seasons.)
But Scherzer is no Chen (.068 career OBP), Buhl (.129) or even Ryan (.148) when it comes to handling the bat. Of the 48 active pitchers who entered this season with at least 200 career plate appearances, Scherzer ranked sixth in batting average (.193) and eighth in on-base percentage (.221).
Even the best-hitting pitchers are bad at it, a big reason why there are calls for a permanent universal DH. But relatively speaking, Mad Max has been no pushover at the plate -- perhaps not surprising given his famous competitive spirit and will to win. At times, he’s been a downright tough out in big situations.
Of course, not stepping to the plate at all in 2020 -- when the universal DH was adopted temporarily as part of the COVID-19 protocols -- could have combined with Scherzer’s advancing age to cut into his hitting ability. (MLB pitchers had a .128 average and .159 OBP in 2019; this year that’s fallen to .109/.149).
But let’s assume that Scherzer’s career numbers represent his true talent level. Given that baseline, MLB.com senior data architect Tom Tango calculated the chances of Scherzer failing to reach base safely in 44 consecutive plate appearances at roughly 60,000 to 1. So we’re already in extremely unlikely territory, but what about the rest of the season?
Assuming Scherzer gets eight more starts, he should wind up with about 62 total plate appearances. The odds for him putting together that many in a row without reaching? How about roughly 5 million to 1.
So the odds, clearly, are on Scherzer’s side. And while hitting of course isn’t his top priority, he certainly is well aware of the 0-fer and will be plenty motivated to bring it to an end. Counting him out would not be a wise strategy.
Here are four more reasons to believe that Scherzer will snap the streak:
1) He makes the pitcher work
Scherzer competes, he doesn’t give in and he knows the strike zone. Compared with the MLB average for all players, Scherzer chases less often (26.1%) and swings at strikes almost as often (65.7%). His 34.1% whiff rate isn’t huge for today's game. And he’s worked seven of his plate appearances to a three-ball count, seeing more three-ball pitches (15) than all but two pitchers not named Shohei Ohtani. Twice this season, he’s taken what should have been a walk -- a three-ball offering out of the zone -- only to have the umpire call a strike.
2) He puts the ball in play
That’s in relative terms, of course. But Scherzer’s 38.6% K rate -- not far above his 34.4% mark from the mound -- is solidly better than average for a pitcher at the plate (44.2%). Among 70 pitchers with at least 20 plate appearances, Scherzer has the 26th-lowest K rate. Compared with the six pitchers on that list who are striking out in at least two-thirds of their chances, that gives him a lot of balls in play that have a chance to find holes, albeit mainly on the ground.
3) His expected stats are better
Not good, of course, but better. Based on his strikeouts and quality of contact (exit velocity and launch angle), Scherzer has posted an expected batting average (xBA) of .086, meaning that he “should” have about 3.5 hits in his 41 at-bats, rather than zero. Setting aside Ohtani, only two pitchers with at least 20 PA this season have a larger gap between their expected and actual average.
4) It’s a game of inches
Scherzer doesn’t have a base hit this season. But as suggested above, he easily could have one (or more). He has four balls in play with at least a .300 xBA and 11 with at least a .200 xBA. Those turn into hits all the time. But Scherzer has launched deep fly balls that got chased down by outfielders, smacked hard grounders that zipped right to infielders and dribbled slow grounders that he couldn’t quite beat out. All it takes is a foot here or a foot there to change the result.
Time is running out on Scherzer, who won’t get too many more opportunities at the plate this season (even assuming good health). And baseball can be cruel, even to the great ones. Still, he seems due. The odds are with him. If he keeps grinding out at-bats and putting balls in play, something good is bound to happen. Right?
The most important storylines here are about Scherzer pursuing his next career milestone and helping the Dodgers become back-to-back champs. Going 0-for-2021 would be a footnote. But it’s a footnote one of baseball’s ultimate competitors surely does not want.
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August 21, 2021 at 11:14AM
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Scherzer close to a hitting 'record' - MLB.com
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